India’s EV sector may exceed NITI Aayog’s 49% CAGR forecast by 2030, driven by strong growth, supportive policies, and expanding adoption.
11 Nov 2025 | 1411 Views | By Darshan Nakhwa & Shristi Ohri
India's electric vehicle sector is on track to exceed the ambitious projections set by government think tank NITI Aayog, with growth rates potentially outpacing the forecasted 49% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030, according to Hanif Qureshi, IPS, Additional Secretary at the Ministry of Heavy Industries.
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India's electric vehicle sector is on track to exceed the ambitious projections set by government think tank NITI Aayog, with growth rates potentially outpacing the forecasted 49% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030, according to Hanif Qureshi, IPS, Additional Secretary at the Ministry of Heavy Industries.
Speaking at the inaugural day of Autocar Professional's India EV Conclave at Hyatt Regency Delhi on Tuesday, Qureshi expressed confidence that the country's EV trajectory would surpass expectations, signaling strong momentum in India's electric mobility transition. "We might surpass NITI Aayog projections for EVs," he stated, noting that current trends suggest the sector could exceed the projected 49% CAGR by 2030.
NITI Aayog has projected a 49% CAGR for India's EV sector between 2022 and 2030, targeting 10 million annual EV sales by the decade's end. The government's broader vision aims for 30% electrification across vehicle segments by 2030. Qureshi specifically highlighted the electric bus segment, stating that penetration is expected to reach 15-20% by the end of the decade. This aligns with India's broader vision of 40% penetration in buses by 2030, though the country currently has only around 7,000 electric buses on roads.
For passenger electric vehicles, Qureshi clarified that the government expects approximately 10% penetration by 2030, while noting that NITI Aayog's 30% projection represents an overall target across all vehicle categories. The distinction is important as it sets realistic expectations for different segments while maintaining ambitious overall goals.
India's EV market has expanded dramatically, with sales surging from 50,000 units in 2016 to 2.08 million in 2024, representing a 59.4% CAGR that already exceeds the global average of 45.8%. This acceleration has made India the fastest-growing large EV market globally. The growth has been particularly strong in the two-wheeler and three-wheeler segments, with electric two-wheelers now accounting for over 3% of total two-wheeler sales and electric three-wheelers surpassing 50% penetration in their segment.
The government's commitment to promoting the EV ecosystem and manufacturing across segments was emphasized by Qureshi, who outlined various policy measures and schemes designed to sustain this growth trajectory. Recent initiatives include the PM E-DRIVE scheme, which allocates ₹10,900 crore for EV adoption and charging infrastructure, and the Scheme to Promote Manufacturing of Electric Passenger Cars in India (SPMEPCI), which offers reduced import duties to global manufacturers in exchange for establishing local production facilities.
The push for electric mobility is integral to India's commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2070. The transition to EVs is expected to help reduce emissions intensity by 45% by 2030, while also decreasing the country's dependence on imported fossil fuels. Currently, India imports approximately 80% of its crude oil requirements, making the shift to electric mobility both an environmental and economic imperative.
Encouragingly, EV adoption is spreading from metros to Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, signaling a broader social and economic shift. This geographical expansion of the market, combined with improving charging infrastructure and declining battery costs, could further accelerate the sector's growth beyond current projections. Industry estimates suggest that the Indian EV market, valued at $54.41 billion in 2025, is projected to reach $110.7 billion by 2029.
The two-day India EV Conclave, organized by Autocar Professional, brings together over 300 industry stakeholders, policymakers, and technology leaders to chart India's electric mobility roadmap amidst global disruptions.
The India EV Conclave 2025 was presented by Chargezone, with Rosmerta Technologies as the Platinum Partner. The event is powered by IPG Automotive and Gulf Oil Lubricants India, with PTC serving as the Technology Partner. Associate Partners include Spark Minda, Radici Group, and Delta Electronics. The conclave also has trade partnerships with FADA, ASDC, and ICAT.